Quo Vadis Belarus? And Where Next for EU Policy?
After several years of gradual rapprochement and pragmatic engagement, EU-Belarus relations hit rock-bottom after rigged presidential election in December 2010 and the subsequent violent crackdown of opposition protests by the Belarusian regime. The ensuing ‘cold war’ between the West and Belarus reached its peak in February/March 2012. In response to the extension of EU sanctions, the Lukashenka regime had requested the Polish and European Union ambassadors to leave the country. All EU member states then recalled their ambassadors to Minsk. Rather than moving closer to the EU, Belarus currently appears to drift towards closer relations with the Russian Federation. Following the economic crisis which hit Belarus in 2011 — the worst since its independence in 1991 — the country’s managed economy is more than ever depended on Russia for the provision of loans, subsidies on energy supply, and access to the regional market. The parliamentary elections in Belarus on 23 September 2012 are a test for the success of the EU’s sanctions policy, but also for the future course of EU-Belarus relations: Quo Vadis Belarus, and where next for EU policy towards Belarus?
Dr Giselle Bosse, Maastricht University